Republicans look like they’re ready to snatch control of the Senate, and the latest Fox News Power Rankings have them on track to do just that. It’s not exactly surprising, given the head start the GOP has had this election cycle. Their star candidate in Montana is doing more than anyone else to get them across the finish line. According to the latest predictions, Republicans are poised to claim at least 51 seats on election night, leaving Democrats clinging to 47. Two races remain in the Toss Up category, but the momentum is definitely swinging toward the GOP.
Montana is no longer considered a toss-up. This state, long represented by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, has leaned blue thanks to Tester’s down-home appeal—he’s played up his farming roots and love of gun rights to squeak through three elections. But let’s be real here: Trump took Montana by 16 points in 2020, and now Tester is up against a formidable opponent in Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy SEAL who’s running a disciplined campaign focused on the economy and border security. It’s hard to see Tester holding his ground in this environment.
Montana is now shaping up as a better pickup opportunity for Republicans than Ohio, which isn’t as solidly pro-Trump. Republican candidate Bernie Moreno has fumbled a bit in Ohio, giving Sheehy the advantage. Polls from late August show Sheehy ahead of Tester 51% to 45%. Tester may have an edge with independents, but let’s not kid ourselves—the state’s conservative lean makes it tough for him to close the gap. Montana’s voters are leaning red, and Tester’s charm might not be enough this time around.
One thing keeping this race competitive, though, is the staggering amount of money being funneled into it. Campaigns and outside groups have already poured more than $121 million into this Senate contest, with another $100 million waiting in the wings. That’s an insane amount of cash for a state where the presidential race isn’t even on the radar, and it works out to more than $150 per registered voter. Tester may be down, but he’s not out—he’s got more than three times as much cash on hand as Sheehy, which gives him a serious advantage when it comes to local ads and get-out-the-vote efforts.
With all that money, Tester has a slim chance of pulling this race back into the margin of error. If Democrats can capitalize on their war chest, they might still have a shot at holding onto the Senate, but with Montana slipping out of their grasp, it’s starting to look like an uphill battle. Republicans are inching closer to a Senate takeover, and it’s going to take more than just cash to stop them.
