In the final stretch before the general election, former President Donald Trump is outperforming his 2016 and 2020 numbers in both national and battleground state polling, which has some political analysts and polling experts scratching their heads. According to RealClearPolitics averages from October 22, Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by less than a percentage point. This is in stark contrast to where he stood in previous cycles: at the same point in 2020, Trump was nearly eight points behind Joe Biden, and in 2016, he trailed Hillary Clinton by over six points. Both times, he ultimately lost the popular vote, even if he clinched the Electoral College in 2016.
What’s surprising is Trump’s apparent lead in all seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — regions that often make or break the Electoral College. Trump is polling better in each of these swing states than he did in his previous two campaigns. Top pollsters are beginning to wonder if the polling industry has improved its accuracy or if they’re witnessing a broader shift in voter sentiment that previously went under the radar.
This polling consistency has given experts reason to believe Trump is running an unusually tight race against Harris. Siena College Research Institute’s Don Levy commented that the competition is markedly closer than in recent elections, while David Paleologos of Suffolk University pointed out Trump’s improved viability compared to past races. Meanwhile, Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen Reports even suggested that Trump has a solid chance of clinching the popular vote — a significant feat he has yet to achieve.
While Trump’s lead isn’t dramatic, the numbers are creating a sense of momentum for his campaign and worry for the Harris camp. The stakes in battleground states have never been higher, with any small shift potentially deciding the Electoral College.
