Fresh off the presses, we’ve got new surveys from seven battleground states that paint a picture many didn’t see coming: Donald Trump could be on the path to victory in November, potentially grabbing a commanding 296 electoral votes. Yep, you read that right—Trump might just be setting himself up for a big win, and it’s sending shockwaves through the political landscape.
According to Trafalgar, which did some polling between August 28 and 30, Trump is poised to snatch 44 crucial electoral votes from the so-called Blue Wall states. The polls are razor-thin, but they show Trump inching ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—three states that could make or break the election. It’s not a landslide by any stretch, but a win’s a win, even if it’s by the skin of your teeth.
Insider Advantage took the reins for polling in four other battlegrounds between August 29 and 31. Their results show Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina leaning Trump’s way. But before anyone starts celebrating, let’s be clear—these states are in a statistical dead heat, meaning this could easily swing in the opposite direction by Election Day. In Michigan, Trafalgar’s numbers have Trump leading by a hair, 47% to 46.6%, which is about as close as it gets.
Pennsylvania is looking a little more favorable for Trump, with a 47% to 45% lead. Sure, it’s not a blowout, but it’s better than the razor-thin 0.72% margin he managed eight years ago. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is right in the middle, showing Trump at 47% to Harris’s 46%. For anyone keeping score, Trump took Wisconsin by 0.77% in 2016 and lost it by 0.63% in 2020, so this one’s going to be another nail-biter.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ polling average has all three of these key states leaning toward Harris, with Michigan flipping on August 29. But let’s not forget how quickly things can change.
Arizona is shaping up to be another battleground, with Trump holding a slim 49% to 48% lead. That’s tighter than Biden’s 0.3% win four years ago and close enough to trigger an automatic recount. But Trump’s got an edge with independents, leading by more than 12 points, which could be a game-changer.
In Nevada, Trump’s got a 48% to 47% lead, helped along by a 9.5% advantage with independents. This is a state Trump lost in both 2016 and 2020, so flipping it would be a significant victory. Over in North Carolina, Trump leads Harris 49% to 48%, a bit less than his 1.34% margin of victory in 2020. Despite Harris leading with independents in this state, Trump could still walk away with its 16 electoral votes.
The only outlier? Georgia. Harris is ahead by a hair, 48% to 47.6%, in the battle for its 16 electoral votes. She’s barely holding onto a lead with independents, at 45.2% to Trump’s 45.1%. It’s anyone’s guess how this one will play out, but it’s clear the fight for Georgia will be fierce.
So, while the polls are far from conclusive, they’re setting the stage for what could be an incredibly tight and dramatic election. With the margins this slim, every vote is going to count, and it looks like we’re in for one wild ride to November.
