Kamala Harris is facing a steep uphill battle in maintaining support from key voting blocs that have traditionally held firm for Democrats. And while she’s struggling to keep that foundation intact, Donald Trump appears to be making headway with minority voters, especially in the Hispanic and Black communities. These shifts could seriously shake things up in the upcoming election.
Trump’s outreach to Hispanic and Black voters has always been part of his broader strategy, but it’s starting to look like he’s hitting a nerve this time. His efforts to flip these key voting groups, which didn’t yield much in 2016 and only modest gains in 2020, now show more significant promise as election season heats up. Polling suggests that the economic policies and general dissatisfaction with the current administration’s handling of inflation and the economy are resonating in ways that Democrats might not have anticipated.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. According to recent polling, Trump is gaining traction among Latino voters in swing states like Arizona. A survey conducted by NBC News/Telemundo puts him at 40% support among registered Latino voters, an eight-point jump from his 2020 numbers. Harris, meanwhile, is still clinging to a slim lead with 54% of the vote. Another poll from Opiniones Latinas backs this up, showing Trump earning 39% with Latino voters across seven battleground states—far more competitive than he was in the previous election cycle.
But it’s not just Latinos. Trump’s appeal seems to be cutting into Black voter support as well. The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation found Trump grabbing 17% of the Black vote in Texas, up from a measly 6% in 2020. This is even higher than some of his fellow Republicans like Ted Cruz, who only pulled 11% with Black voters in the same state. For a Republican to make this kind of headway with Black voters in a state as critical as Texas is no small feat.
Meanwhile, Harris continues to boast strong support among Black voters, but even those numbers are far from what Democrats might like to see. A CNN poll gave her 79% of the Black vote, while Trump came in with 16%—not exactly a landslide for Harris. Considering Trump only managed to secure 8% of Black voters nationwide in 2020, this would be a notable increase if these trends hold.
It’s clear Trump has pivoted his messaging for minority voters. In 2020, he leaned heavily on his record of criminal justice reform, but this cycle, he’s shifting toward economic issues. With inflation high and the economy stumbling under Biden and Harris, Trump is hammering home his pitch that things were better under his administration. And it seems to be working. Harris, on the other hand, is stuck trying to explain away her administration’s failures, and it’s showing in the polls.
In short, if Harris can’t find a way to stop the bleeding with minority voters, and if Trump keeps gaining ground, we may see a significant shift in these traditionally Democratic strongholds.
