As Republicans assess the state of the 2024 election, it’s hard to miss the echoes of overconfidence that haunted past races. While early voting patterns in key states like Nevada may look promising for the GOP, they’re getting a bit ahead of themselves if they think this means smooth sailing to victory. After all, comparing today’s trends to 2020—a year with a pandemic, unprecedented mail-in voting, and drive-in honking victory speeches—is like comparing apples to oranges. The circumstances that led to Joe Biden’s win were anything but normal, and using that chaotic year as a measuring stick for this election is bound to be faulty at best.
Even looking at Florida’s impressive 2022 GOP turnout should come with a giant asterisk. Florida Republicans absolutely dominated the midterms, painting the state deep red in ways that stunned even seasoned political analysts. But if they thought that same “red wave” was going to sweep the nation, they were sorely mistaken. In most states, the wave didn’t crash—it barely made a ripple. With the exception of a few spots like Ohio and Iowa, Republicans were left asking, “What happened to the big win we were promised?”
And yet, the GOP base seems all too eager to declare victory again, eyeing early voting numbers as proof they’re about to reclaim their majority. But counting your chickens before they hatch—especially in the unpredictable world of mail-in ballots and last-minute turnout surges—can lead to serious disappointment. The reality is, national trends are far more complex than they appear in early voting stats.
Republicans might want to rein in their excitement until they’ve seen more than just a few hopeful numbers. After all, the lessons from 2020 and 2022 show that pre-election momentum doesn’t always translate into Election Day success.
