If President Biden is perceived as the loser of Thursday night’s presidential debate against former President Donald Trump, it could intensify the ongoing speculation about his potential replacement as the Democratic presidential nominee for 2024. This speculation has been circulating for months and could gain more traction following a poor debate performance.
In mid-February, New York Magazine explored the idea of replacing the 81-year-old president as the nominee. The magazine deemed the notion politically far-fetched but technically possible, albeit increasingly complicated as Election Day approaches. This scenario, while unlikely, remains a point of discussion within political circles.
ABC News highlighted the structure of the Democratic Party’s delegate system, which includes pledged delegates, allocated based on state primary votes but not legally bound to support any candidate, and superdelegates, who are political office holders or DNC members. These delegates also are not legally obligated to any specific candidate, making a shift in support theoretically possible if Biden were to withdraw.
Despite this, Democratic senators are dismissing the speculation as baseless. One senator emphatically told The Hill, “There’s no way in hell that’s true. Not a chance in hell that’s true.” A Democratic consultant echoed this sentiment, stating that even in discussions about potential alternatives, the idea is not taken seriously. Vice President Kamala Harris is not widely seen as a viable primary replacement, further complicating any potential change.
Historically, the last time an incumbent president was denied his party’s nomination was in 1884 when Chester Arthur lost to James G. Blaine. Blaine, however, was ultimately defeated by Democrat Grover Cleveland. New York Magazine opined that the most plausible scenario for Biden not being the nominee would be his voluntary withdrawal. This would likely result in Kamala Harris becoming the nominee, as any other choice would be seen as undermining Biden’s initial decision in 2020 and would likely anger Harris’s supporters.
Business Insider recently suggested potential replacements for Biden should he step down, including Kamala Harris, Governors Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Roy Cooper (D-N.C.), and Wes Moore (D-MD), as well as Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.). These names represent the Democratic Party’s bench of potential leaders, but replacing Biden remains a complex and contentious issue within the party.
