With the November election just around the corner, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is pulling out all the stops—including spending big bucks to rally votes from Americans living overseas. But there’s a big question hanging over this overseas voting operation: can these ballots even be trusted in a system notorious for its vulnerabilities?
The DNC has proudly announced a hefty $300,000 investment in Democrats Abroad, their official arm for mobilizing overseas votes. DNC Executive Director Roger Lau is adamant that this is money well spent, claiming, “This election will be won on the margins, and every single vote counts.” Apparently, Democrats are so concerned about the tight race that they’re looking under every rock (or, in this case, across every ocean) for votes. Lau insists this “innovative investment” will help round up the votes of the “nearly 9 million Americans living and serving overseas.” But are there really that many voters abroad, or is that just another inflated figure?
According to the Department of Defense’s Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP), that number is a stretch. In fact, their 2022 analysis puts the number of U.S. citizens living abroad at closer to 4.4 million, with only 2.8 million of them eligible to vote. So, either the DNC has found a magical way to get tourists and vacationers to cast ballots, or someone’s math is off. But why let facts get in the way of a good campaign narrative, right?
To make things even more confusing, Doris L. Speer, president of The Association of Americans Resident Overseas (AARO), chimed in with her own analysis. According to a November 2023 AARO study, Speer points out that there are several estimates of how many Americans actually live abroad, some of which vary wildly. She takes particular issue with the claim of 9 million Americans overseas, noting that this number is based on a vague State Department estimate that likely counts anyone outside the U.S. for any reason—including tourists. So, are we rallying voters or sunbathers?
Speer’s critique doesn’t stop there. She traces the DNC’s favored 9 million figure back to a one-page brochure from the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs. And guess what? There’s no real explanation for how they arrived at this number. Even the Defense Department’s Federal Voting Assistance Program has thrown shade at the estimate, suggesting it’s an overestimation designed for “contingency operations.” In plain English: the number’s inflated to cover all bases, not just for voting purposes.
So, while the DNC may be dumping cash into a global hunt for votes, it seems like their numbers might be as shaky as their policies. With questionable figures, potential vulnerabilities in the overseas voting system, and a lot of ambiguity, this grand plan to secure the overseas vote feels more like a gamble than a guarantee.
