The 2024 election results paint a vivid picture of widespread dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, as voters across nearly every demographic moved toward the GOP. The sheer scale of the shift was staggering, leaving little doubt that the policies and messaging of the Biden-Harris administration failed to resonate. It wasn’t just a Republican win; it was a political earthquake that sent tremors through even the most traditionally Democrat-aligned groups.
While Kamala Harris maintained a significant advantage with Black voters, her 72-point lead marked a historic 19-point drop compared to 2012. That kind of erosion among a demographic long considered a Democratic stronghold is no small thing. Donald Trump’s most dramatic gains, however, came from Hispanic voters, where he saw a jaw-dropping 29-point increase in support. He also made substantial inroads with Asian voters and those not categorized by race, securing a 17-point rise in those groups. These shifts illustrate a clear message: the Democratic Party’s grip on minority voters is loosening, and fast.
The story doesn’t stop there. Trump also improved the GOP’s appeal among White voters without college degrees, adding 13 points to the Republican column. But the real shocker was his performance among nonwhite college-educated voters, where he gained 21 points, and among nonwhite voters without a degree, where support for the GOP skyrocketed by 35 points compared to 12 years earlier. This broad-based appeal represents a decisive rejection of the identity politics and economic mismanagement that have become hallmarks of Democratic governance.
Even among younger voters, Trump made strides, improving by 14 points in the 18-29 age group and 8 points in the 30-44 bracket. While younger voters still leaned left overall, these gains hint at cracks in the Democrats’ supposed monopoly on youth. In the middle-aged and older demographics, Trump’s gains were consistent, with an 8-point improvement in the 45-64 age group and strong continued support from older voters. What’s more, Trump gained ground in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Even California, the Democrats’ crown jewel, showed signs of dissent, with Trump on track to net over two million additional votes once the state finishes counting—a process that, true to form, is dragging on indefinitely.
The numbers tell a clear story: the Democratic Party’s coalition is fracturing under the weight of its own policies, and Trump’s message of economic opportunity and national pride is resonating across racial, educational, and generational lines. For a party that once boasted of a “permanent majority,” the Democrats now face the harsh reality of a broad-based rejection from the very voters they took for granted. If the GOP capitalizes on this momentum, the political landscape could look very different for years to come.
Quite a chart pic.twitter.com/EofHhhguQa
— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) November 25, 2024
