Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer has decided to call it quits on her election polling operation, a move that comes in the wake of her firm’s spectacular miss in the 2024 presidential election. Her final survey for The Des Moines Register wildly underestimated Donald Trump’s support in Iowa, missing the mark by a jaw-dropping 16 points. It turns out that when it comes to reading the political tea leaves, Selzer’s crystal ball wasn’t quite as clear as advertised.
The decision follows a final poll that made headlines for all the wrong reasons. Selzer’s survey, released just before Election Day, had Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump 47-44% among likely Iowa voters. The result gave Democrats a glimmer of hope that Harris could pull off an unlikely upset. Media outlets seized on the narrative, breathlessly speculating about a potential blue shift in the Hawkeye State. But on Election Day, reality came crashing down as Trump won Iowa by a commanding 13-point margin, finishing 56-43%. In hindsight, Selzer herself admitted the poll not only got it wrong but may have inadvertently motivated Republican voters who thought they could afford to be complacent.
Gannett Media, the parent company of The Des Moines Register, has since pledged to reevaluate its approach to polling. Kristin Roberts, the company’s chief content officer, released a statement acknowledging the failure and promising changes. The Iowa Poll, once heralded as a model of accuracy, will now “evolve” in an attempt to better reflect voter sentiment. The acknowledgment of the poll’s shortcomings came with an added mea culpa: “We did not deliver on our promise of accuracy,” Roberts conceded.
Selzer’s polling operation has long been a fixture of political coverage in Iowa, with her work considered a “gold standard” in the field. Since joining The Des Moines Register in 1987 and founding her own firm, Selzer & Co., she has overseen the poll since 1997. Her track record prior to this year was widely respected, with only one significant miss in six previous presidential cycles. Yet, the scale of her 2024 error seems to have cast a long shadow over her otherwise lauded career, leaving some to wonder whether polling as a whole can ever truly adapt to the increasingly unpredictable nature of voter behavior.
Despite the legacy of the Iowa Poll as a reliable barometer for voter intentions, this latest misstep underscores the challenges facing traditional polling in the modern era. While statistical models and surveys have guided political discourse for decades, the evolving dynamics of elections—and the unique enthusiasm Donald Trump brings to his base—may require a complete rethinking of polling methodologies. For now, Selzer’s swan song serves as a stark reminder that even the most trusted names in the business can falter, particularly in an election cycle as charged and unpredictable as 2024.
