Nate Silver isn’t exactly the favorite of some folks, especially when his projections don’t swing their way. Liberals had a real issue with him when he gave Donald Trump a near 60 percent chance of victory in 2024, even before the Kamala Harris “switcheroo” momentarily shifted things in her favor. But here we are again: Trump’s back in the lead, and Silver is listing out the 24 reasons why Harris is on track to lose this election. The irony isn’t lost on anyone, especially as Silver’s been covering his bases in case his projections don’t pan out. Still, the reasons he lays out are the kind of things even Harris’ own camp probably knows, and plenty of liberal writers have been dumbfounded by her downfall since September.
What’s really hilarious, though, is how the mainstream media can’t seem to wrap their heads around why Kamala is struggling against Trump. Silver lays out a whole buffet of reasons, and unsurprisingly, at the top of the list is Harris’ own failure to define herself as a candidate. She just can’t seem to decide who she is or what she stands for, which isn’t exactly a winning strategy.
Sure, Silver throws in a nod to the fact that Harris is still the favorite to win the popular vote, but that pesky Electoral College skews Republican by about two points, which spells trouble for her. In this era of close elections and deeply entrenched partisanship, overcoming that disadvantage isn’t going to be easy for Democrats. And then there’s inflation—hitting a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and still hovering at uncomfortable heights for voters. Even if inflation has eased, people remember the pain, and they’re quick to blame the Democrats for it, especially after the massive COVID-era spending spree.
What’s really amusing, though, is how out of touch some of these Democratic consultants are. Silver doesn’t hold back on this point, calling out the “hyper-condescending” consulting class that’s so out of step with the real world they don’t even know how to talk to everyday Americans. This crew thinks they’re geniuses, but they’re the ones who are steering Harris’ campaign into the rocks.
The bottom line? The race isn’t over, but Silver’s rundown of reasons why Harris could lose reads like a laundry list of Democratic woes. So while things are looking up for Trump, the message is clear: don’t get complacent, and make sure to turn out the vote.
