Vice President Kamala Harris has seen an unexpected bump in the polls since becoming the Democratic nominee, but the sudden rise in her popularity has raised eyebrows among industry analysts who are questioning the legitimacy of this apparent surge. Harris, who struggled to gain traction in the 2020 primaries, where she barely broke 3% before dropping out, is now mysteriously leading in several national polls. This abrupt change has left many wondering if the numbers reflect reality or if there’s some manipulation at play.
Before stepping into the role of Democratic nominee, Harris was grappling with dismal approval ratings, and former President Donald Trump held a steady lead over her in head-to-head matchups. However, following her nomination, the numbers quickly flipped in Harris’s favor. Some of these polls, though, have been criticized for lacking transparency in their sampling methods, with accusations of oversampling Democrats to tilt the results.
Pollster John McLaughlin voiced his concerns on the “Just the News, No Noise” show, pointing out that some of these polls are suspiciously skewed. “They’re polling fewer Republicans and oversampling Biden 2020 voters,” McLaughlin noted. “It’s clear they’re trying to inflate Harris’s numbers and suppress our vote. This isn’t an accident; it’s a deliberate strategy.”
Currently, Harris leads Trump by a slim 1.5% margin in the RealClearPolitics polling average. However, this lead is not consistent across all polls. The only surveys showing Trump ahead are from Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, and CNBC, while others give Harris a narrow one-to-four-point edge. Despite the apparent shift, Trump led in the polls until early August and hasn’t regained the lead since.
Tony Fabrizio, a Trump pollster, predicted what he called a “Harris Honeymoon,” where Harris would enjoy a temporary boost due to favorable media coverage. “The media will shower her with positive coverage, which will energize Democrats in the short term,” Fabrizio warned. “But the fundamentals of the race, like concerns over inflation and crime, won’t change with Harris at the top of the ticket.”
Pollster Scott Rasmussen echoed this sentiment, describing Harris’s polling boost as a “sugar high” in an appearance on the “John Solomon Reports” podcast. Rasmussen pointed out that voters’ opinions on key issues like inflation and crime remain largely unchanged, despite the current polling numbers. He suggested that the more voters learn about Harris’s actual positions, the less likely they are to support her.
Even Democratic strategist James Carville has urged caution among Democrats, warning them not to get too excited over Harris’s current standing. “It’s a sugar high. People don’t really know much about her positions yet,” Rasmussen added, noting that Harris’s support for controversial issues, like allowing biological males to compete in women’s sports, could backfire as voters become more informed.
McLaughlin, reflecting on the rapid shift in polling, noted, “Just days after a united Republican convention, Biden withdraws, and suddenly Harris is the chosen one. It’s all too convenient, and the numbers don’t quite add up.” As the campaign progresses, it remains to be seen whether Harris’s lead is sustainable or just another temporary bump fueled by media hype.
