Joe Biden is clinging to the idea that this race is a toss-up. In an interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos, Biden doubled down on this notion, which only highlights the ongoing issues with his campaign and messaging. This narrative, much like the recently debunked story about his trip to the neurologist, is a desperate attempt to mask the reality. Despite Biden’s deep denial, his June 27 debate with Donald Trump, universally seen as a disaster, has not faded from memory.
Biden admits his debate performance was terrible but claims he didn’t lose because Trump didn’t gain ground. However, losing supporters means Trump gains by default, Joe. National polls, which Biden’s camp clings to for some semblance of good news, still show him trailing Trump. Biden was already losing to Trump in key battleground states before the debate, and it’s even worse now. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report confirms that six critical states have become more Trump-friendly. Yet, Biden thinks he can still win with one-third of his brain capacity.
Wisconsin is the only state where the race seems close, while Pennsylvania should induce panic among Biden’s staffers. It’s the most likely state to flip out of the must-win trio, including Michigan and Wisconsin. If Biden loses Pennsylvania, it’s game over. Private polling shows Trump expanding his lead in Pennsylvania by up to ten points. Meanwhile, Biden’s weak debate performance has shifted the spotlight to his health, a topic that will hound him and down-ballot Democrats, much like how GOP lawmakers were chased for comments about Trump’s social media antics.
Before the June 27 debate, Biden trailed Trump by just over a point according to RealClearPolitics. Post-debate, Trump now leads by three points nationally. Private polling from both Democratic and Republican sources shows Trump gaining ground in battleground states. In one set of surveys, Trump expanded his lead in Pennsylvania from four to ten points. A recent AARP poll in Wisconsin found Trump ahead by five points, a state where Biden had managed to keep the race close.
The so-called ‘elite’ class’s concerns have been baked into many voters’ minds. Biden’s dismal job approval rating isn’t just about his policies on inflation or immigration; it’s also driven by worries about his age and stamina. Many frustrated voters supported Biden pre-debate but have not flocked to Trump post-debate. However, in a closely divided electorate, even a small shift is significant. If Trump wins the national popular vote by three points, it would mark a seven-point improvement from 2020, making any state or district Biden carried by eight points or less competitive.
Keeping states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s 2nd District in the Likely Democrat column is hard to justify. They now move to Lean Democrat. Trump’s leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are currently safe, moving them from Toss Up to Lean Republican. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain in the Toss Up column, with Pennsylvania being the most vulnerable to a Trump flip. Since the debate, public and private polling shows Trump opening up a bigger lead in Pennsylvania, where his SuperPAC has spent over $10 million on advertising.
For months, polls have shown Republicans with an enthusiasm advantage. The Cook Political Report’s May Swing State Project poll found that 18% of Biden’s 2020 voters in key battleground states are uncommitted this time around. These uncommitted voters don’t think this election matters much. While 83% of Biden loyalists say this election is more important than others, only 56% of defectors feel similarly. The Biden team argues that once these voters understand the high stakes, they will turn out for the president. However, Biden’s weak debate performance raises doubts about his ability to deliver that message effectively.
Walter also notes that Kamala Harris isn’t a riskier bet than Biden, but she offers no advantages either. Like Biden, she’s unpopular and tends to falter under the spotlight. Her campaign faded before Tom Steyer’s in the 2020 primaries, and she’s been a disaster in public events. Like Biden, she can’t deviate from the script or talking points. Trump’s main goal is to get Biden’s former supporters to stay home on Election Day.
National polls post-debate suggest unaffiliated voters haven’t flocked to Trump but have defected from Biden. Partisans remain largely unchanged. Trump is running stronger with traditionally Democratic constituencies like Black and Latino voters. He doesn’t need to win many over to flip those Sun Belt states back to red. Trump just needs disappointed anti-Trump voters to stay home.
The former president has let Democrats do the heavy lifting in tearing Biden apart, creating fractures within the base over the June 27 debate fallout. This discipline is a new development, one that Democrats probably weren’t expecting and find frustrating since Trump offers no relief to the beleaguered leftist party. Biden’s insistence that Trump didn’t gain anything and that the race is a toss-up is absurd. If these trends hold, Republicans are looking at a very good night. Biden may want to stop talking about the debate and move on, especially with persistent questions about his fitness and unexplained trips to a neurologist specializing in Parkinson’s Disease.
